Sixty Days and Counting by Kim Stanley Robinson

on The Three Box Game:

Three boxes, all closed, one ten-dollar bill hidden in one of them; the experimenter knows which. Subject chooses one box, at that point left closed. Experimenter opens one of the other two boxes, always an empty one. Subject then offered a chance to either stick with his first choice, or switch to the other closed box. What should he do?

Frank had decided it didn't matter, fifty-fifty either way. He thought it through.

But each box at the start had a one-third chance of being the one. When subject chooses one, the other two have a two-thirds chance of being right. After the experimenter opens one of these two boxes, always empty, those two boxes still have a two-thirds chance, now concentrated in the remaining unchosen box, while the subject's original choice still had its original one-third chance. So, one should always change one's choice.

Shit. Well, put it that way, it was undeniable. Though it still seemed wrong. But this was the point. Human cognition had all kinds of blind spots. One analyst of the studies had concluded by saying that we simulate in our mind actions we wish we had already happened. We act in short, by projecting our desires.

Well -- but of course. Wasn't that the point?

But clearly it could lead to error. The question was, should one's desires be defined in such a way as to suggest actions that were truly going to help make them come to pass in one of those futures still truly possible, given the conditions of the present.

p. 73

Where to begin? I guess with the comment that this was made into a great TV show hosted by Monty Hall - he always revealed the door not chosen. I wonder what other cognitive traps are revealed by game shows. Maybe we should ask Alec Trabec about directions for further research. LOL

More seriously, if we alter our perceptions based on our desires, and don't get me started on reflector neurons here, how can we see what is truly happening? Can we even see what our true desires are? How can we start to make plans to realize our desires, when they are affecting the perception of reality we need to make those plans. 

A thorny knot indeed. I will have to think about this, but a first approximation of the solution may be to not think for a while. Meditation or contemplation anyone?